The HCA chief executive made the prediction as he unveiled the agency's preliminary end-of-year results.
Kerslake said that the body, which began operating on 1 December after inheriting English Partnerships and the Housing Corporation, delivered 50,000 new, affordable homes. It also met its target to invest ВЈ3.9bn on its national housing and regeneration programme.
"It's a tough market out there. To deliver these results is a credit to all of the sector that is involved but no-one is under any illusion that the year ahead is going to be a challenging year," he said.
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But he added that he was confident that the agency would be able to deliver at least as many houses in 2009/10 as it had in 2008/09, although he could not give precise numbers until it has a reached a funding settlement with the government.
The homes are likely to be a mix of rent-to-buy and low cost homeownership (LCHO) homes, although the mix of rent-to-buy homes is likely to increase, as housing associations become more wary of building LCHO homes.
HCA 2008/09 preliminary outturns:
National Affordable Housing Programme:
Completions, Rent - 27,501 (105% of target) Completions, LCHO - 19,743 (91% of target) Starts on site, Rent - 30,389 (101% of target) Starts on site, LCHO - 10,787 (77% of target)Property and Regeneration:
Brownfield Land Reclaimed - 327 Housing Starts Commissioned - 3,144 Housing Completions - 6,201 Employment Floorspace (Sq m) - 452,378 Private sector investment (ВЈm) - 1,025Housing first-time buyers return but need 25 per cent deposit
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